What is The Best Forex Strategy?

Falling Euro: APF Drift Strategy Earned 600pips

Italy just sold bonds at the highest yield since 1997, and we have seen the Euro falling for the past month. Well, up or down forex traders can profit – take a look at our proprietary strategy and indicators on the EURUSD Daily chart:

Very clearly the red line signalled a sell on 31st October 2011 but we waited for a double confirmation from the blue line crossing below zero (in green circle) on 8th November and we entered a convicted short position. As of this typing, our strategy is up 600 pips.

Get your hands on this powerful forex system now.

Losing Money in Trading is the Right Thing To Do

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There are a few indicators such as Ichimoku and Elliot Waves which can give you an indication of price action in the future. When an analyst makes a right call, he becomes a superstar overnight. If he makes a wrong call, the public tosses him aside.

However, being wrong in forecasting a market does not mean you have “made a mistake”. This is a probability business; if your principles are sound, you will be right a certain percentage of the time, which means you must be wrong a certain percentage of the time. So being wrong is a consequence of doing the right thing, not “making a mistake”.

The best analysts are till wrong a lot. Now you can see why the public always loses. It still thinks that being right means always being right and being wrong is a “mistake.”

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Is There Forex Insider Trading?

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Was just wondering how the market can cheer a Euro debt crisis plan one week, and turn completely bearish the next, when really, nothing much has changed except some written documents. If we knew any of these Euro leaders, we could have made a killing in the forex market. Whoever gets the news first on major economic decisions stands to profit massively from the currency markets.

Likewise, terrorists also have the power to make such profits. Before Osama pulled the trigger on the September 11 attacks, he could have shorted equities, long gold etc. And profit from the disaster he created. Talk about reloading your ammunition!

Such economic news and information is out of reach to the man on the street. To predict fundamental decisions is a 50-50 game, you are either right or wrong, and fair no better than in a casino. Traders on the other hand, may miss out on the icing, but can potentially eat the profit cake. When such economic news disseminates throughout the market and media, price action will show. React (not predict) fast enough and you can join the profit game.

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Trading VS Value Investing

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One cannot predict near term performance with a value approach. You could easily look foolish a year from now. However, recall the dark days of early 2009. The world was coming to an end, or so we all thought. By early March of that year throw a stone and it will hit a bull. Yet we were reminded shortly afterwards that the darkest hour is often just before sunrise. Within weeks, global equity markets had shaken off the misery of the previous six months and we went on to register one of the greatest bull runs of all times. This is value investing, seeking value when others are dumping them.

And then we wonder. When you manage a fire department, do you place your firemen where you think the next fire will be based on historical trends? Or do you send your team to where there IS a fire?

Enter Trading.

Traders position themselves in the eye of the storm, acting on trade signals and chart setups, undeterred by all the surrounding news and noise (theoretically). The challenge traders face is fake setups which look like the ones they were waiting for. This is part of their cost of doing business. However, unlike value investing, traders usually have less risk on the table on average.

Value investing, also known as buy-and-hold, requires the investor to plunk in cash, and wait. This wait could be 5 years or a decade, or until the Euro leaders are done with their trial and error efforts of solving the debt crisis. Until then, the value investor’s money is on the table, at risk.

Traders on the other hand are usually more time sensitive and get in and out whenever setups are in favor. From a time-risk perspective, it is riskier to be a value investor.

That said, there is a time/personality/capital base for both strategies. The key is to find the approach which suits your current situation.

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Why Is Forex Trading The Best Career?

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“We earn a living when other people put on their dumb hats and buy too high or sell too low. No, folks like us don’t build bridges, sell suits, or lead their flocks to salvation. To be realistic, we contribute absolutely nothing to society except pure liquidity and an aggressive attitude.” – Excerpt from The Master Swing Trader Toolkit

While most Entrepreneurs earn their income by creating value to society, traders don’t really do that. In terms of control, no other career can match trading. Without a boss, every research, decision and execution is at the trader’s disposal. Likewise, the upside and downside of the trader’s account is also at his fingertips.

Trading allows you to develop a skill set based on research, and tests your emotional and psychological limits very often. It is unlikely for a trader to get bored in his job. While it may get monotonous following trading rules month in month out, traders are free to take breaks, and pursue other interests such as philanthropy whenever they have the time and capacity/capital.

In essence, trading as a career gives you complete freedom without compromising your earning potential.

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Trend Trading Market Wizard

Gold has fallen about 20% from it’s high of 1900, to 1536.90 as of this writing.

Ichimoku analysis paints a bearish picture for this safe haven:

1. Tenkan Sen (pink) and crossed below Kijun Sen (yellow)

2. Kumo Twist with Senkou Span A (orange) crossing below Senkou Span B (green)

3. Chikou Span (gray) has broken below both the price and Kumo Cloud

Gold has entered bearish territory with Primary Resistance at 1700 and Secondary Resistance at 1800.

As the price drop last week was very sharp, we expect a retracement towards 1600. Downtrend is in play as long as resistance levels are not broken.

Trend Trading Market Wizard

Over the weekend, I was re-reading the book “The New Market Wizards”, you can download it here.

One of the successful traders, Randy McKay, says this:

“The beginning of a price move is usually hard to trade because you’re not sure whether you’re right about the direction of the trend. The end is hard because people start taking profits and the market gets very choppy. The middle of the move is what I call the easy part.”

This in essence, is trend following – catching the easy part. Trading systems such as Ichimoku Kinko Hyo allow you to do this. Randy adds:

“I never try to buy a bottom or sell a top. Even if you manage to pick the bottom, the market can end up sitting there for years and tying up your capital. You don’t want to have a position before a move has started. You want to wait until the move is already under way before you get into the market.”

The problem of “sitting there for years” is common to fundamental value investors, who pick up stocks which are beaten down by the market. They can end up waiting for years before the market finally realizes the stock is undervalued. Most retail investors do not have such capital and holding power like Warren Buffet does.

Trading Systems such as Ichimoku Kinko Hyo work for Forex and Stocks, and across all timeframes. It allows you to catch the easy part of the move.

How Important Is Money Management In Trading?

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Some people are fond of saying, “Even a poor system could make money with good money management.” This contention is complete nonsense. All that good  money management will do for a poor strategy is to assure that you will lose money more slowly. For example, no money management system can ever be designed to make money playing roulette, because the edge is against you. (The odds would be exactly even, but the zero and double zero give the house a decisive advantage.) In fact, if you are playing a poor strategy (one where the edge is against you), your best chance for coming out ahead is to apply the extreme of bad money management-risk everything on one trade.

Because the longer you play with a negative edge, the greater the probability of eventual financial ruin. Probably the most basic requirement for successful trading is that you must have some well-defined method, or, in other words, a specific approach that gives you an edge.  That approach could be buying undervalued securities and selling overvalued securities, or it could be some better-than-breakeven way of selecting price directional trades. Without such a method, or edge, you will eventually lose, because the odds are 50/50 before transaction costs. If you don’t know what your method is, you don’t have one. (By the way, buying a stock because your brother-in-law gives you a tip is not a method.)

Participants in the market may well be gambling. If you don’t have a method (i.e., an edge), then trading is every bit as much a gamble as betting in the casinos. But with a method, trading-or for that matter, even blackjack-becomes a business rather than gambling. Fortunately for traders, whereas the casinos can bar players because they become too proficient, the market has no way of eliminating the skillful traders.  Therefore,  if  you  can  devise  a  method  to  beat  the  market,  no  exchange  can  come  to  you and say, “We’ve noticed that you’re making too much money. You can’t trade here any more.”

Once you have a method, you still need money management to prevent an adverse streak from taking you out of the game. It is critical to keep in mind that even if you have the edge, you can still lose all your money. Therefore, the bet or trade size must be small enough to keep the probability of such an event very low. So the appropriate quote is, “Even a good system can lose money with poor money management,” rather than the fallacious contortion of this theme quoted at the start of this article.

Adapted from: The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America’s Top Traders –  Jack D. Schwager (2008).

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How To Start Trading Forex?

As the global economy is going through a tough phase, most people in various countries are trying their best to look for some passive source of income so that they have enough money with which they can pay back their financial obligations. Forex market investment is the best way to make money and if you’re living in Singapore, you can take advantage of the booming forex market. Forex market is the currency exchange market and this is just like a big auction house where traders come to sell and purchase different currency pairs to make money. Read on to know about some common practices by the forex traders in Singapore.

  • Acquire knowledge: The Singapore forex market is a huge one and if you take a wrong decision while choosing the currencies, you might fall in trouble. Therefore, it is necessary to acquire enough knowledge about the market so that you may be able to take the best step forward while picking the currencies.
  • Open a forex account: Whenever you think of trading with the Singapore forex market, you have to make sure that you open an account and trade under a forex coach. A forex broker is the one who can help you take the best decisions while trading so that you can make maximum gains and minimum risks. Take his help until you become proficient in some basic things about the forex market.
  • Open a live account: It is a fact that the lessons that a live market and real money can provide is something that cannot be provided by even the best forex broker. Live trading as dummy trading is allowed within this market so that you may gain enough first-hand knowledge on this particular market and thereby take the best decisions.
  • Adopt certain skills: You must be aware that the forex market is a highly volatile market where currency prices can rise or fall any time. If you’re trading with the forex market in Singapore, you need to have flexible mind, sound money management skills and some time-tested habits to entry and exit the market.

Irrespective of the place where you’re investing money, you must make sure that you have adopted all the required skills. Follow the tips mentioned above and choose the best currency pairs to ensure maximum gains.

Forex Trading Singapore: Strategic Bear Positioning On Euro

Euro has typically been a trending currency and attracts attention on a global front especially when investors worry over European sovereign debt problems.

On the technical the Eurusd 40 day simple moving average crossed below the 200 day moving average suggesting further down trend going ahead.

See comments on the chart below to see how the pair looks on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo.

Traders might want to consider positioning themselves strategically on shorts.