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One cannot predict near term performance with a value approach. You could easily look foolish a year from now. However, recall the dark days of early 2009. The world was coming to an end, or so we all thought. By early March of that year throw a stone and it will hit a bull. Yet we were reminded shortly afterwards that the darkest hour is often just before sunrise. Within weeks, global equity markets had shaken off the misery of the previous six months and we went on to register one of the greatest bull runs of all times. This is value investing, seeking value when others are dumping them.

And then we wonder. When you manage a fire department, do you place your firemen where you think the next fire will be based on historical trends? Or do you send your team to where there IS a fire?
Enter Trading.
Traders position themselves in the eye of the storm, acting on trade signals and chart setups, undeterred by all the surrounding news and noise (theoretically). The challenge traders face is fake setups which look like the ones they were waiting for. This is part of their cost of doing business. However, unlike value investing, traders usually have less risk on the table on average.
Value investing, also known as buy-and-hold, requires the investor to plunk in cash, and wait. This wait could be 5 years or a decade, or until the Euro leaders are done with their trial and error efforts of solving the debt crisis. Until then, the value investor’s money is on the table, at risk.
Traders on the other hand are usually more time sensitive and get in and out whenever setups are in favor. From a time-risk perspective, it is riskier to be a value investor.
That said, there is a time/personality/capital base for both strategies. The key is to find the approach which suits your current situation.
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